Where rates are
The Monetary Policy Rate stood at 27.5% through the first half of 2025. The Central Bank cut it to 27% in September 2025, to 26.5% in February 2026, and to 23% at its meeting of 21 and 22 September 2026. Headline inflation was 15.39% in August 2026.
Businesses do not borrow at the policy rate. They borrow above it.
What that means for a buyout
Borrowing only adds to returns when the cash a business earns on its capital clears the cost of that borrowing with room to spare. Many Nigerian mid-market businesses do not clear it. Loading them with acquisition debt hands their cash flow to a lender and leaves the risk with the owners.
Our rule
Debt where the cash flow carries it. Never where it does not. We size borrowing from the cash a business generates after it has funded its own working capital and maintenance, test it against rates rising again, and use equity for the rest.
A falling policy rate is a reason to refinance later. It is not a reason to borrow more now.
Sources. Central Bank of Nigeria, Monetary Policy Committee decisions, February 2025 to September 2026. National Bureau of Statistics, Consumer Price Index, August 2026.