What happened to the yardstick
On 13 June 2023 the naira closed at ₦471.67 to the dollar in the official window. The next day the Central Bank of Nigeria unified the exchange-rate windows, and the official rate closed at ₦664.04. By 14 March 2024 it stood at ₦1,608.98. In early October 2026 it was close to ₦1,332.
Take a business that earned ₦1 billion in mid-2023. At the time, that was about $2.1 million. At October 2026 rates, the same ₦1 billion is about $0.75 million. To stand still in dollar terms, the business needed its naira earnings to grow roughly 2.8 times. Most did not.
Why it matters at the table
Any buyer whose capital, or whose cost of capital, is set in dollars converts. A seller who anchors on naira growth and a buyer who anchors on dollar value can both be right and still never agree a price. That gap is not a negotiating position. It is arithmetic.
What a seller should prepare
An earnings history restated in dollars at the rate of each year. A clear account of which costs are paid in foreign currency, or priced off it. And evidence of pricing power: how quickly the business passed cost increases to its customers after June 2023, and how much volume it lost when it did.
A business that held its margin through the reset has proved something no forecast can.
How we price it
We value in naira and test in dollars. A business that only works at one exchange rate is not one we buy.
Sources. Official-window rates for 13 and 14 June 2023 and 14 March 2024 as reported in the Nigerian financial press on those dates. NFEM reference rate of about ₦1,331.77 to the dollar on 7 October 2026, Central Bank of Nigeria. Dollar conversions are ours and rounded.